Would you make this trade?: Frank Seravalli suggests a deal between the Oilers and Kraken

It’s Valentine’s Day, and that means Daily Faceoff’s annual matchmaker article has been released.

And in this year’s edition, matchmaker Frank Seravalli predicts the Edmonton Oilers to acquire an old friend in Jordan Eberle. The Oilers have reportedly had interest in Eberle as the trade deadline nears, and it makes sense for multiple reasons.

Ever since he left Edmonton, all Eberle has done is continue to put up points, with a 52-point per 82-game pace, a number he’s virtually on pace for this season in thanks to nine goals and 29 points in 49 games. This year, however, has been a bit of a down year for him offensively, with his .59 point per game pace below the .77 he put up last year, his highest such mark since he left the Oilers.

But beyond that, he’s continued to remain an impactful player on the ice, where, according to hockeyviz.com, he provides even-strength offence at a 19 percent rate above league average, and defence at a one percent rate above league average.

Seravalli’s trade proposal isn’t a small one, and it’s a rather complex deal. It would be a three-team trade between the Oilers, Kraken, and Blackhawks, with the Oilers receiving Eberle with 75 percent of his salary retained, 50 percent by the Kraken, and 25 percent by the Blackhawks.

To facilitate this, the Oilers would trade Mattias Janmark and a 2025 4th round pick to the Blackhawks to make the money work, while sending a 2024 1st round pick and prospect Raphael Lavoie to Seattle to entice them to retain salary.

Here’s how Seravalli broke down the deal:

It’s not Valentine’s Day without an old flame rekindled, is it? Man, it would be fun to see Eberle back in Edmonton. Yes there is certainly some unfinished business there, it’s more than just a feel-good story. Eberle, now 33, and seven years removed from his last appearance in Oil Country, is still a productive player. He collected 20 goals and 63 points last season and is on-track for 15 goals and 49 points this year. Seattle isn’t scoring as much as they did last year, and there probably isn’t a huge drop in Eberle’s overall play. More than that, if the Oilers were to draw up a fit, they’d be looking for a right-shooting, top-six forward who is pass-first to play with Leon Draisaitl. Eberle checks all of those boxes. Plus, when you consider the market, he is likely to be among the most cost-effective players available relative to acquisition price. The narrative the previous Oilers regime created about Eberle not being a clutch playoff player was debunked the minute he left Edmonton. Eberle has 19 goals and 45 points in his last 63 postseason games, which is a higher points-per-game rate (0.71) than his career average (0.69).

Seravalli thinks that Eberle would slot in beside Leon Draisaitl on the Oilers’ second line, and we saw them play together for 239 minutes at 5v5 prior to the former’s trade to Long Island. In those minutes, the Oilers controlled 54.3 percent of the shot attempt share, 54.13 percent of the scoring chance share and 53.28 percent of the expected goal share.

Despite controlling the pace of play well, they couldn’t get much going in terms of offence, with a 35.71 percent goal share, and just 1.25 goals for per hour. That, however, was due to an abysmally low 3.82 on-ice shooting percentage, a number that isn’t sustainable by any stretch of the imagination.

Both were different players between 2014-15 and 2016-17, too. Just in that final season, Draisaitl began to emerge as a significant point producer for the Oilers, where he racked up 29 goals and 77 points. The two played just 25 minutes together that season, had as good of underlying numbers, but scored a staggering 4.67 goals for per hour, controlling 66.67 percent of the goal share.

That’s too small of a sample size to put significant weight behind, as we like to see around 100 minutes of ice time together before we get a good idea of where things lie, but at the very least it’s an indication of what could’ve continued to come: the Oilers dominating in all facets when they’re together.

To me, that’s part of what makes an Eberle return enticing for the Oilers. They’ve already added some “hard-to-play against” in Corey Perry, who would bump down the roster, and adding a pass-first Eberle to a line with Draisaitl and Evander Kane, two known scorers, could help provide a big bump to this team.